4. Research design

This is a qualitative case study via process tracing: the strategy is to gather the verified cases of divergence between the two membership systems (FIFA and the UN) and check whether the observed pattern is more consistent with the predictions of H1, H2 or H3, as specified in section 3. It is not a census of the 18 points of mismatch between the two maps, it is an analysis of the most salient and best-documented cases, with a declared source for each table row.

The empirical base gathers facts verified against primary sources (FIFA statutes, official statements, admission and expulsion records from continental confederations) or reference press, covering the period from 1904 (FIFA’s founding) to 2025. An important methodological note: several claims that circulate about this topic in secondary sources and popular coverage turned out to be imprecise when checked directly against primary sources — the exact sequence of Gibraltar’s entry into FIFA, the real reason Kosovo is not at the UN, and Lionel Messi’s presence at a frequently cited friendly (he did not play). Where this occurred, the claim was corrected with the right source, or flagged as unverifiable.