4. Research design
This is a qualitative case study via process tracing: the analytical strategy consists of reconstructing the complete temporal sequence of Saudi investment in sport, event by event, and verifying whether that sequence is more consistent with the observable predictions of H1, H2, or H3, as specified in section 3. This is not an experimental design nor a large scale statistical analysis: with a single in depth case and a structured comparison of only two additional cases (Qatar and Abu Dhabi), any statistical inference would be statistically empty. What the design allows, and what it sets out to deliver, is a factual reconstruction rigorous enough for competing hypotheses to be confronted with specific evidence, case by case.
The empirical basis is an original fact bank, built for this paper and for the broader project it is part of (O Mapa, this site's ledger of verified facts), covering the period from 2016 (the launch of Vision 2030) to 2026, with a declared projection through 2034 (the Saudi World Cup). Each event in the bank is an observable, public fact: an acquisition, a sponsorship contract, a hosting right, with year, value when publicly available, and a primary or reputable press source. The inclusion rule is strict: a fact without a reliable source does not go in; where the financial value is not publicly confirmable, the field is left blank rather than filled with an unsupported estimate. This rule has a cost (the bank is more conservative than it could be if it accepted any number circulating in the press) and a benefit (every line withstands independent checking).
The comparison with Qatar and Abu Dhabi follows the same evidentiary rule, with an additional limitation stated up front: the fact bank used in this comparison is necessarily less complete than the Saudi fact bank, because this paper does not set out to reconstruct the Qatari and Emirati portfolios with the same degree of primary detail, relying, in these two cases, on the secondary literature already reviewed (especially Reiche, 2015, for Qatar) complemented by targeted factual verification of the most cited dates and figures.
What this design does not allow, and it must be said plainly before any result is presented: it does not measure attraction, perception, or soft power as an outcome. Measuring that would require methodically collected opinion polling data (the kind of data that underlies indices such as the Brand Finance Global Soft Power Index), replicated over time and compared before and after each specific investment (an entirely different research design), which this paper does not carry out and which no press analysis has carried out to date for the Saudi case. Where the available evidence allows only indirect inference about perception (for example, the volume and tone of international press coverage), the paper explicitly treats that inference as interpretation, not as measurement.