9. Limitations

Four limitations need to be stated plainly, not tucked away in a footnote.

First, and most important: this is a case study using qualitative process tracing, not an experimental design nor a large sample statistical analysis. The test of the three hypotheses in section 7 is an argued and transparent reconstruction of which explanation best fits the available evidence, not a statistically significant proof of causality. A researcher with different priors could, in principle, weigh the same evidence differently; what this paper offers is evidence that is declared, verifiable, and organized in a way that allows exactly that kind of informed disagreement.

Second, the comparison with Qatar and Abu Dhabi (section 6) is asymmetric: the Saudi fact bank was built with line by line primary verification for this paper; the fact bank used in the comparison relies on secondary literature (especially Reiche, 2015) complemented by targeted checking, and is therefore less granular. A comparison with the same degree of primary detail for all three cases is a natural extension of this work, not carried out here for reasons of scope.

Third, and perhaps the most uncomfortable one: this paper does not measure soft power outcomes, only the investment strategy and its persistence over time. The absence of retreat under criticism is treated as evidence against H3, but it is not, and does not claim to be, a direct measurement of how international publics actually perceive Saudi Arabia today compared to 2016. That measurement would require public opinion data collected with a consistent method over the period, which does not exist publicly available with the necessary granularity.

Fourth, the process under study is ongoing: a paper written in 2026 about a project whose culminating event is set for 2034 is, by construction, a snapshot in the middle of the film. New data between 2026 and 2034 (leadership changes, oil price shocks, reputational events not yet occurred) may alter the relative weight of the three hypotheses in ways this paper cannot anticipate.