Why Trump Bet on the UFC to Win the 2024 Election
Domestic sportswashing, media fragmentation, and the realignment of the young male vote in the United States
This piece revisits the concept of sportswashing through a case the literature rarely examines: its use by a democratic actor, aimed not at international opinion but at a specific segment of the domestic electorate itself. I analyze the alliance between Donald Trump and the UFC ecosystem during the 2024 presidential campaign, reconstructing a verified timeline of events and testing three competing hypotheses: reputation management and audience engagement (H1), organic personal affinity between Trump and UFC figures (H2), and access to alternative media as the real mechanism, with sport as an incidental vehicle (H3). The method is a qualitative case study via process tracing, with adversarial fact-checking of every figure cited. The central finding: the three hypotheses coexist and reinforce one another, but the best-supported figure (38% of Americans aged 18 to 29 get informed through social media influencers, against 8% of those over 65) points to access to alternative media as the most explanatory mechanism, with sport functioning as the most visible vehicle, not the most decisive one.
1. Introduction
On November 16, 2024, at Madison Square Garden, Jon Jones knocked out Stipe Miocic with a spinning kick to the ribs and defended the UFC heavyweight title. Before speaking into the microphone, Jones did the dance that Donald Trump made popular at his rallies. He then walked over to Trump's seat, handed him the belt, and asked the crowd to cheer for the president-elect. The sports press treated the scene as a spontaneous tribute. This piece proposes a different reading: the moment was the visible peak of a deliberate alliance between a presidential campaign and the world's largest MMA organization, built over months and aimed at a specific electoral objective.
Eleven days before that fight, on October 25, 2024, Trump had recorded a three-hour appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience, the most-listened-to podcast in the United States, hosted by one of the most influential names in the UFC ecosystem. On the eve of the election, Rogan posted that his endorsement of Elon Musk amounted to an endorsement of Trump. On the night of the victory, Dana White, president of the UFC, closed his speech by thanking "the mighty Joe Rogan" by name. Taken in isolation, each event looks like an electoral-calendar coincidence. Taken together, they reveal a pattern: a presidential campaign deliberately using the cultural capital of a sports organization to reach an audience that traditional politics could no longer reach.
The International Relations literature has a name for the strategic use of sport in building reputation and narrative: sportswashing. The concept was coined to describe authoritarian regimes (Nazi Germany in 1936, Russia in 2014, Qatar in 2022) using mega-events and clubs to project international legitimacy in the face of scrutiny over human rights violations. The research question that organizes this piece inverts the literature's usual premise: what happens when the same instrument is used not by an authoritarian regime seeking external legitimacy, but by a candidate in a consolidated democracy, seeking not international opinion, but a specific segment of the domestic electorate itself?
The hypothesis most cited in coverage of the case, and the one that guides much of the sportswashing literature, is that reputation management and audience engagement are sufficient to explain why actors turn to sport as a political tool. This piece tests that hypothesis against two rival explanations that the literature itself suggests but rarely compares explicitly: that what occurred was genuine personal affinity between Trump and the UFC's leading figures, not a calculated image strategy; and that the decisive factor was not sport itself, but access to the alternative media (podcasts, YouTube) that the UFC ecosystem dominates, making MMA incidental to the real mechanism.
This piece makes a twofold contribution. First, it reconstructs the verified timeline of the Trump-UFC alliance between 2024 and the election, with a primary or reference-press source for each event, correcting figures that circulate imprecisely in popular coverage of the case (the young male vote swing, UFC revenue, the demographic data underlying MMA fandom). Second, it tests three competing hypotheses about why this alliance worked, rather than assuming the sportswashing explanation to be self-evident.
The piece proceeds in nine sections. Section 2 reviews the literature on soft power, sportswashing, and sports diplomacy, and locates the gap that motivates this piece: the near-absence of studies on sportswashing in democratic contexts. Section 3 sets out the theoretical framework and the three competing hypotheses. Section 4 states the research design. Section 5 presents the verified timeline of the Trump-UFC alliance. Section 6 presents the electoral realignment data and the demographic overlap between UFC fans and Trump voters. Section 7 tests the three hypotheses against the evidence. Section 8 draws out implications for campaigns, platforms, and sports organizations. Section 9 states the piece's limitations, and section 10 concludes.