4. Research design

This is a qualitative case study via process tracing: the strategy consists of reconstructing the verified temporal sequence of the alliance between Trump and the UFC ecosystem, event by event, and checking whether this sequence is more consistent with the observable predictions of H1, H2, or H3, as specified in section 3. It is neither an experimental design nor a large-sample statistical analysis: with a single case examined in depth, any statistical inference would be empty. What the design does allow is a factual reconstruction rigorous enough to confront competing hypotheses with specific evidence.

The empirical base gathers facts verified against a primary or reference-press source (never based on unverified secondhand figures), covering the period from 2016 (Trump's first public appearances at UFC events) to November 2024. An important methodological note: a considerable share of the figures circulating about this case in popular coverage (percentages of the young vote swing, UFC revenue, the political composition of MMA fans) proved imprecise or unverifiable under direct checking. Where this occurred, the figure was corrected against the proper primary source, or removed when no reliable source could support it.

What this design does not allow: it does not measure the causal effect of the Trump-UFC alliance on the final electoral result, isolated from all the other factors of the 2024 campaign (the economy, immigration, the rival candidate's performance). What it does measure is the existence, timing, and coordination (or lack thereof) of the events that make up the alliance, and it uses the documented demographic realignment as circumstantial evidence of plausibility, not as proof of direct causation.